Oh I don’t discount insurgency being a thing, that I think is very likely. I’m just saying that the balkanization process, I don’t see happening for a long time. Balkanization I think sorta implies strong state governors trying to secede. That takes time. That takes drumming up the state nationalisms of Californians, Minnesotans, etc. That takes a radical social movement and drift away from the American identity and culture, and developing one’s own within ones state. Insurgency, probable, balkanization, not yet.

With how everything is currently structured, I don’t think it’s too likely. The people of the individual states that would balkanize, still too strongly believe in a united American nation. The federal government would also have to significantly weaken itself and it’s own powers, and it currently seems to be further centralizing and strengthening itself without regard to and in opposition to it’s people’s political rights and powers.