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Joined 4 months ago
Cake day: January 18th, 2025
  • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.comtoNo Stupid Questions@lemmy.world•Selling BTC or not..?English
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    14 hours ago

    Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:

    • Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
    • Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
    • Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
    Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions
    2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor.
    2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria.
    2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling.
    2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs.
    2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK.
    2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax.
    2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve.
    2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average.
    2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside.
    2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %.
    2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.”

    How the bands were built

    1. Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
    2. Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
    3. Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
    4. Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.

    Key caveats

    • Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
    • Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
    • Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.

    These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.